Ebola-udbrud og SIR-modellen

Abstract

This paper accounts for the Ebola outbreak and the mathematic model SIR. It provides a description of the Ebola virus and Ebola's pathogeneses. In brief, Ebola virus infections are characterized by; immune suppression and a inflammatory response that causes impairment of the vascular system and immune systems, which leads to multi-organ failure and shock. Additionally, the paper provides a description of the mathematic model SIR. Based on the attached material, an analysis of the future prospects of Ebola has been carried out. The analysis suggests that one year after the outbreak, the population of Sierra Leone will be decreased to two million people, from an initial population of six million. Furthermore, the SIR-model's ability to provide a prediction of the outbreak has been discussed, including calculations on how much the SIR-model diverge from the provided data. Finally, an evaluation on whether or not Ebola can become airborne, and which consequences such scenario would have on the SIR model has been made. From a biological perspective, a small possibility of Ebola becoming airborne exists, since RNA replicates often, which can cause a mutation that makes Ebola airborne. However, the odds of this happening are very poor. [Læs mere…]

Islamisk stat opståen og samfundets reaktion

Abstract

The object of terror is, with use of violence or threat of violence to scare a population, either with a politic or religious motive. Islamic State, or IS, is at current time the most referred terrorist group, and that is why Islamic State it the topic for this assignment.

There has been given an account for how Islamic State is a fundamentalist group, with use of the term fundamentalism as a theory. Furthermore, there has been analysed how the international world have acted towards the raise of Islamic State, with the use of international theories. At last, there has been discussed, how a possible solution of the conflict could come to action.

My conclusion on the project is that you can argue for Islamic State as a fundamental group, as they interpret the 1400 year old Koran in their own way. At the same time they wish to fight enemies both close and far with weapons as means. Moreover, the international world has reacted with focus in own national interest and with a realism point of view. I have also concluded that a solution within a five-year frame is possible. This does demand co-operation on both a regional, international and global basis, where the different countries and organisations bury previous as well as current internal conflicts internal, with the exception of the Sunni and Shia conflict. This is also applies between the great powers of America and Russia who have been trying to maintain the balance of power between them since the Cold War ended. [Læs mere…]