Ebola-udbrud og SIR-modellen

Abstract

This paper accounts for the Ebola outbreak and the mathematic model SIR. It provides a description of the Ebola virus and Ebola's pathogeneses. In brief, Ebola virus infections are characterized by; immune suppression and a inflammatory response that causes impairment of the vascular system and immune systems, which leads to multi-organ failure and shock. Additionally, the paper provides a description of the mathematic model SIR. Based on the attached material, an analysis of the future prospects of Ebola has been carried out. The analysis suggests that one year after the outbreak, the population of Sierra Leone will be decreased to two million people, from an initial population of six million. Furthermore, the SIR-model's ability to provide a prediction of the outbreak has been discussed, including calculations on how much the SIR-model diverge from the provided data. Finally, an evaluation on whether or not Ebola can become airborne, and which consequences such scenario would have on the SIR model has been made. From a biological perspective, a small possibility of Ebola becoming airborne exists, since RNA replicates often, which can cause a mutation that makes Ebola airborne. However, the odds of this happening are very poor. [Læs mere…]